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基本面上，供给端，目前纯碱厂商仍有可观利润，近期减量检修产家不多，纯碱市场货源供给量充足。纯碱厂商轻碱订单充足，部分厂家适当调整轻重碱生产比例；需求端，重碱方面，天然碱产能释放在即，下游拿货仍然较为谨慎，多数厂商仍以刚需补库为主；轻碱方面，下游行业盈利能力增强，开工率提升，轻碱需求有所好转。目前纯碱厂商在手订单充足，库存较低，涨价意愿较强，短期纯碱现货市场或稳中略涨。展望后市，大规模产能投放背景下纯碱仍应以偏空思路看待。目前氨碱法厂商完全生产成本为1700元/吨，09合约上方压力明显，同时目前07和09合约价差超过200元/吨，制约盘面进一步大幅下跌，短期纯碱盘面预计将在多空资金的博弈下宽幅震荡运行。需关注碱厂实际夏季检修情况及远兴能源产能投放进度。